Manchester City vs. Chelsea: Who’s got the edge?

We’re at that point in the season where the contenders for the title have stepped up, and the wannabes have been left by the wayside. The blue half of Manchester has slipped to second for the first time in a long time, and after their recent exit from Europa League (where they looked the strongest team), Mancini will be desperate to stay relevant in the only competition they can still win. Conversely, a manager-less Chelsea has 3 wins in a row and are fighting hard for the last Champions League spot available. The clash between the two most financially able clubs in the league can be a significant in making or breaking either of the teams’ remaining ambitions. If Manchester City are to keep the pressure on their crosstown rivals they’ll need a win, but Chelsea could be a massive hurdle in what is now a Manchester-only two-horse race. We may even see the return of a certain City forward who had his name in the papers for all the wrong reasons not too long ago.

Building from the back:

The probable absence of Vincent Kompany will be weighing heavily on Mancini’s mind, and if there’s one place where City look understaffed – it’s in defense. The man they’ll most likely turn to is the highly experienced but long-in-the-tooth Kolo Toure, who might have the experience but will lack the pace to keep up with the quick Chelsea forwards – a factor Chelsea should seriously consider exploiting.

Gael Clichy and Micah Richards will probably start in the full-back positions, but are likely to curb their attacking runs for fear of being punished by a capable Chelsea counter-attack. The City defense is going to be under pressure and is definitely the weakest part of their team sheet.

Chelsea on the other hand have almost no injury concerns, and will be blessed with one of the most solid defensive lineups in the league. John Terry could make his return to his favored center-back position, Chelsea having missed their irreplaceable leader in recent games. The rest of the defense will include Ivanovic, David Luiz and probably Ashley Cole. Overall, a formidable combination of experience and youth that will be difficult to break down. There’s a chance Petr Cech will be a spectator for most of the game.

Controlling the Middle of the Park:

The midfield will be where this game will be won and lost, as both teams have an excess of quality midfielders capable of locating the forwards. The City midfield will probably be led by David Silva, as the diminutive Spaniard is the brain behind many of City’s goals this season. Chelsea’s midfield and defense will need to keep a close eye on him to make sure his clever passes through defensive gaps don’t leave them reeling. In contrast to Silva’s deft creativity will be Yaya Toure, who will reinforce the City formation as well as providing some trademark attacking runs that usually result in a goal or a free kick in a dangerous position. It’s difficult to guess what the starting midfield will be though, with players like James Milner, Adam Johnson and Samir Nasri all more than capable of contributing significantly.

Chelsea’s engine room is most likely going to be anchored by Lampard and Essien, two extremely level-headed and consistent players whose only drawback is that they won’t be able to match the creativity City have in abundance. Their age might make them unable to complete a full 90 minutes against what will be an energetic and difficult to track City midfield. Both have the ability to shoot from distance and find their striker’s with minimal effort, with a City defense lacking in stability there’s every chance these two veterans could bag some assists or find one of Joe Hart’s top corners. The frequently inspirational and occasionally dismal Ramires is likely to fill the remaining slot in the middle of the park.

Moving Forward:

City’s strike force is probably the most capable and dangerous in the league, one of the perks of being able to outbid anyone interested in players Mancini has his heart set on. His options look a little something like this: Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli, Edin Dzeko and the outcast but nonetheless valuable Carlos Tevez. These players bring very different traits to the table, and will be difficult to monitor. Aguero will be a pain to mark in and around the box and Dzeko will be a major threat from set-pieces and open-play crosses delivered by Silva. Balotelli is a wild-card, oscillating between scoring crucial goals and trying to scrape opposition players’ faces off with his studs.

The Chelsea attack will be equally dangerous, but probably less inspired. Drogba is still one of the best all-round forwards in Europe, but his age and occasional lack of good service from the midfield could hinder his performance. Chelsea have their own little Spanish dynamo in Juan Mata, who will play a similar role to Silva, he will be the biggest source of creativity in the Blues’ attack. Chelsea’s best weapon will be the young and in form Daniel Sturridge, whose pace and fearless runs at either fullback will be a huge threat. He might not get on the score sheet as often as he will in future, but he’s definitely going to be making the most plays.

Key Battles:

Luiz vs. Balotelli: David Luiz is one of the more inspirational prospects for Chelsea’s future; aerially proficient and capable of piercing and unexpected forward runs. However, he’ll have to reign in his desire to join the attack, as City’s quick play could very well find him out of position and unable to deal with the offensive onslaughts City are capable of. His inexperience compared to other Chelsea defenders sometimes results in silly fouls in dangerous positions; he’ll need to be particularly careful with a tricky and dramatic Balotelli that isn’t afraid to manipulate free-kicks out of weaker referees. Expect both players to be featuring in set-pieces, both in attack and defense.

Sturridge vs. Clichy/Micah Richards: Sturridge’s pace and crafty runs into the box are going to keep either of City’s fullbacks very busy. He’s more than capable of confusing and frustrating their defense and winning free-kicks or even penalties for his team. If City doesn’t keep a close eye on him there’s a chance they’ll get punished for it by Sturridge’s considerable dribbling and crossing ability.

Impact Players:

Chelsea: Although his tenure at Chelsea has been marred by terrible form and indifference from fans, Fernando Torres is still one of the classiest forwards in the European game. Introducing him at the hour mark when City’s defense is fatigued may just give the Blues the ability to smash and grab a deciding goal. His pace and tricky style will make him a handful to deal with, especially if City’s defense have spent most of the game trying to contain Sturridge and Drogba.

Manchester City: Possibly still hated by many, Carlos Tevez is allegedly available for selection after a lengthy spell on the sidelines after refusing to come off the bench in a European game almost three months ago. Despite the back and forth over selling Tevez for his disciplinary short-comings he is still a City player, and his contribution before this fiasco was huge. If he makes an appearance it has the potential to be the kick City need to steal a win, conversely the crowd’s reaction and Chelsea being well aware of his ability might end up in him being marked out of the game.

Wrapping Up:

Recent fixtures between these two sides have been low-scoring battles of attrition, where both sides are cautious and wary of the others’ threats. Manchester City’s defensive home record points to a victory or at worst a draw for them, but Chelsea are definitely capable of breaching the City defense. City’s best bet is to try exploiting gaps between defenders to get Aguero or Balotelli into a one on one situation with Cech. Chelsea on the other hand should focus their attacks on running at the organizationally sketchy City defense and drawing as many fouls as possible, this will make the City defenders reluctant to dive in to avoid a sending off.

It’s a difficult match to call, going out on a limb I’d say the most likely result is a 1-1 draw. That being said City’s lack of a truly commanding center-back could mean a shock is on the cards, Mancini will be putting massive pressure on his players to stay on United’s heels.